Saying the quiet part out loud
I hate this post. However, there is little point denying it. The climate 1.5C target is mathematically dead.
The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 report says it plainly. We emit roughly 42 billion tonnes a year. Therefore, about four years remain before the 1.5°C carbon budget runs out.
We would need to cut emissions 20% immediately, just to stretch that to five years. That is not happening. Furthermore, fossil emissions rose about 1% this year, despite strong renewables growth.
We are approaching peak carbon. China is starting to flatline, while the USA, Europe and land use emissions are dropping. Nevertheless, it is too little and too late for the 1.5C target.
Why saying it matters
Fantasy targets corrupt real planning.
Companies still write strategies, and still sign supplier commitments, anchored to a trajectory that is no longer physically available. That is not optimism. Instead, it is planning error. Blog 11 on twenty years of ESG reporting shows how easily good reports hide that.
Moreover, it crowds out the target that remains winnable. 2°C is still possible if efforts accelerate. Furthermore, every tenth of a degree between here and there matters enormously.
The difference between 2.1°C and 2.5°C is massive in physical impacts. Supply chains feel it first: agriculture, water, logistics and insurance.
The Apollo 13 model
Apollo 13 is the model here. The moment the oxygen tank blew, the Moon landing was gone. Meanwhile NASA did not spend a minute pretending otherwise.
They adapted the mission to getting the crew home. Then every calculation from that point served the winnable goal. They took the famous call seriously: ‘Houston, we’ve had a problem’. Can we take global warming just as seriously?
Ultimately, that is what adapting to 2°C means.
Adapt, then act
- Stop tracking the dead target. Formally adapt your commitments to a 2°C consistent trajectory. Realistic targets beat fantasy planning, and your suppliers can tell the difference.
- Shift from offsetting to absolute reduction. Launch projects that remove real tonnes, in your operations and, mostly, in your supply chain. After all, roughly 80% of your carbon footprint lives there, as Blog 10 on where the supply chain impact sits sets out.
- Make procurement the delivery mechanism. Supplier selection, contract clauses, segmentation and reviews turn a climate target into physical change. If your net zero plan does not run through procurement, it is a brochure.
The honest close
This series began with AI hype. Now it ends with climate arithmetic. Meanwhile the connecting thread stays the same. Honesty about what is real beats comfortable stories, in technology and in sustainability alike.
So, the death of 1.5C target does not mean giving up. Instead, it means fighting for 2°C like it matters, because it does, every tenth of a degree.
Ultimately, procurement sits on the 80%. Therefore, it holds more leverage over that fight than almost any function in the company. Time to use it.
Do your climate commitments need adapting to a trajectory you can actually deliver through your supply chain? That is precisely the work SPV does. Contact me: pdigweed@spvalue.com.au.
This is The Hollywood Procurement Blogs S1 E12. Material created by Paul Digweed with support by AI team member. We acknowledge the Global Carbon Project, which is responsible for the Global Carbon Budget, and we thank the land and ocean modelling groups for producing and making available their model output. We acknowledge NASA for making their images available.
- https://globalcarbonbudget.org/
- https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm
- HadCRUT5, Friedlingstein et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025
- https://images.nasa.gov/